UFC Fight Night 234: Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista odds, picks and predictions

In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Ricky Simon and Mario Bautista meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 234 at the UFC's APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the UFC Fight Night 234: Simon vs. Bautista odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Simon (20-4-0) | Bautista (13-2-0)

Simon takes the walk to the octagon looking to bounce back after a 5th-round KO/TKO loss against Song Yadong last time out. That halted a 5-bout win streak. During the run, he recorded a unanimous decision, a split-decision win, 2 KO/TKOs and a submission victory.

Bautista arrives with 5 consecutive wins, with a pair of unanimous-decision wins and 3 submission victories since a KO/TKO loss at UFC 259.

Bautista holds a 5.32 significant strikes landed per minute to just 3.01 for Simon. Bautista is much more accurate, too, landing 58.68% of his significant strikes to just 50.93% for Simon. The latter is tremendous with a 5.84 takedown average, to 2.72 for Bautista.

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UFC Fight Night 234: Simon vs. Bautista odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Simon -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Bautista +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
• Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -185 | Under +140)
• Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -150 | No +110)

UFC Fight Night 234: Simon vs. Bautista picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Simon (-200) will set you back 2 times your potential return, and that's just a little too expensive for my liking. My personal limit for a singular moneyline wager is -180, although I wouldn't mind it terribly if you were to include Simon into a parlay.

The better play is to roll with SIMON BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+125) at plus-money. Simon has ended up going the distance in 5 of the past 11 bouts, while Bautista has needed the assistance of the refs in 2 of his past 5 outings. Simon is just a lot more versatile, and he'll likely be able to wow the judges with his ability on the mat, against the fence, as well as toe-to-toe.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-185) is just a little too expensive for my liking, and really, betting it gives you very little wiggle room.

Instead, just go with YES (-150): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? as a much more economical play.

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