AFC Wild Card: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and predictions

Nathan Beighle

Staff Writer

The Buffalo Bills (11-6) welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) to Highmark Stadium Monday for an AFC Wild Card matchup. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Steelers vs. Billsodds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Bills started off the season 5-5 before surging to end the year, winning their last 5. They beat the Miami Dolphins 21-14 on the road in Week 18 to claim the AFC East and ensure a home Wild Card game. Buffalo is 7-9-1 against the spread (ATS) on the season and 4-4 ATS at home. It is led by QB Josh Allen, who ended the 2023 season with 4,306 passing yards and 44 total touchdowns.

Pittsburgh covered as a 3-point favorite in a 17-10 win at the Baltimore Ravens in what was a meaningless Week 18 battle for the home side. It is 10-7 ATS on the season and covered its last 3 games, winning each outright as well. The Steelers have not been underdogs of 7 or more yet this season. They will be led by QB Mason Rudolph, who ended with 3 starts and 719 passing yards.

This game was originally scheduled to take place Sunday but was postponed due to severe weather in Western New York.

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Steelers at Bills odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 2:15 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Steelers +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Bills -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Steelers +10 (-110) | Bills -10 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 38 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Steelers at Bills key injuries

Steelers

DE T.J. Watt (knee) out

Bills

WR Gabe Davis (knee) out
CB Rasul Douglas (knee) questionable

Steelers at Bills picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 19, Steelers 13

Moneyline

PASS.

The Bills (-550) are the far better team, and the Steelers will be down their most lethal defensive player. That combination makes an upset unlikely, but the Bills are too expensive to play outright on the moneyline.

Against the spread

BET STEELERS +10 (-110).

The Steelers haven't often been the better team, but they have found a way to keep games close this season. They have covered in 3 of their last 4 road games and should be strong betting underdogs as well. The Steelers offense is the biggest question mark, but with Rudolph, it has scored at least 30 in 2 of its last 3.

The Bills are surging but still have covered in just 1 of their last 3. They were 4-8-1 ATS over the last few months. While Allen and company are the clearly more talented side, the well-coached Steelers should be able to keep it within 9.

Back STEELERS +10 (-110).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 38 (-110).

Neither team has been good at consistently scoring this season, and this total is far too low for more bettors to get behind, making it the perfect recipe for success.

Buffalo is 6-11 O/U and has allowed 17 or fewer in 3 of its last 5 games. The Steelers are also 6-11 O/U on the season and have allowed 11 or fewer in 2 of their last 3. The defenses have playmakers, even without Watt active.

Considering the season-long trends, take UNDER 38 (-110).

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