Who will win the Iowa Caucuses? 6 GOP candidates' path to victory ‒ or defeat ‒ on Jan. 15
Galen BacharierIowa Republicans will caucus on Monday to select their choice for a presidential nominee and kick off a contentious primary election calendar.
Former President Donald Trump, facing 91 criminal charges across four different cases, is waging an unprecedented campaign as the faraway front-runner.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, both former allies of Trump, have for weeks battled for second place, lobbing attacks at each other as they aim to position themselves as the leading alternative to Trump.
Author and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is running a near-nonstop campaign blitz focused on passing the baton to a younger leader of the party.
And the remainder of the field — former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Texas pastor Ryan Binkley — are fighting to remain in the conversation come caucus night.
Here's a rundown on where each candidate stands according to our recent polling; what their path to success in the Iowa caucuses looks like; how they could fall short; and a key insight into every one of their campaigns.
Former President Donald Trump
Where he stands: 51% in December's Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, leading the field by 32 percentage points.
His path to victory: Trump's assertion throughout this cycle comes to fruition — a landslide victory in which he eclipses 50% of the vote, while none of his challengers stands out or gains significant ground.
His campaign's organizing operation turns out longtime loyalists and first-time caucusgoers alike, proving its competence compared to his scattered 2016 operation. Barring a late surge by a rival in the following early states, Trump rolls into New Hampshire and beyond looking like the all-but-assured nominee.
How he could fall short: The Trump campaign's turnout strategy flops, failing to turn out supporters in high numbers while the ground game of DeSantis or Haley or both pays off and accelerates them into competition.
Failing to win the caucuses with such a significant polling lead just weeks out would be unprecedented, but even a close margin between Trump and one or both of his challengers could give them the momentum to pull off an upset in New Hampshire and turn the race upside down.
A key number: 63%, the percentage of first-time caucusgoers who named Trump as their first-choice candidate in December's Iowa Poll. That's up from 49% in October, and compared with 12% support among first-time caucusgoers for DeSantis and 11% for Haley.
Read more on Donald Trump:
- How Trump's 2024 campaign quietly built a grassroots juggernaut in Iowa
- Iowa Poll: Trump's harsh rhetoric increases his support among many likely Iowa caucusgoers
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
Where he stands: 19% first-choice support in December's Iowa Poll, second place.
The path to victory: DeSantis' laser focus on Iowa pays off — harnessing a massive super PAC organizing effort and connections with evangelical leaders to surge late and emerge as the Trump alternative of choice.
His ability to earn the support of some of Iowa's most prominent conservative leaders — Gov. Kim Reynolds, Family Leader CEO Bob Vander Plaats, radio host Steve Deace and others — and a near-constant campaign with visits to all 99 counties provide the last-minute break from the pack the governor has been seeking for months.
How he could fall short: DeSantis' struggle to gain traction in Iowa continues until the very end, with the support from state GOP leaders and ample spending failing to result in a competitive finish.
Fueled by a bump of national interest over the winter, Haley instead cements herself as the leading alternative to Trump, and DeSantis' lack of significant investment in future states makes a path to the nomination difficult.
A key number: 812,000, how many homes in Iowa the pro-DeSantis super PAC says it had knocked doors on as of late December. If DeSantis ends up with a favorable result, it will be in part because of the PAC's massive dump of resources throughout the state.
Read more on Ron DeSantis:
- DeSantis calls Haley a 'phony' who 'just doesn't get Iowa' as caucuses near
- Ron and Casey DeSantis make a final push ahead of the Iowa Caucuses. What they're saying
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley
Where she stands: 16% first-choice support in December's Iowa Poll, third place.
The path to victory: A late winter surge continues for Haley through Caucus Day, separating her from a bitter back and forth with DeSantis and elevating her to a competitive position as the leading challenger to Trump.
Haley's increasingly sharp attacks against DeSantis (and to a lesser extent, Trump), combined with a well-financed field operation courtesy of the Koch political network, allow her to push through criticisms from the right and prepare for New Hampshire, where recent polling has shown her chipping away at Trump's lead.
How she could fall short: The former ambassador and governor's pitch as the best option to beat President Joe Biden in the general election doesn't resonate with Iowans, and those not backing Trump instead flock to DeSantis.
Haley will head to New Hampshire hoping that, in her words, which were quickly criticized by DeSantis, voters in that state "correct" Iowans' decision.
A key number: $24 million, how much Haley's campaign said they fundraised in the last three months of 2023. It's more than double what she raised in any other quarter thus far in the campaign, a sign that her campaign has seen a boost in national attention and an indication that she aims to stick around regardless of Iowa's results.
Read more on Nikki Haley:
- Nikki Haley says Chris Christie's candidacy 'has left everybody scratching their heads'
- 'You won't get chaos with me,' Nikki Haley tells Iowans in post-debate campaign visit
Entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy
Where he stands: 5% first-choice support in December's Iowa Poll, fourth place.
The path to victory: Ramaswamy's pitch to Iowans who typically don't show up for the caucuses in large numbers — independents, young voters and Libertarians among them — sees success, as he outperforms his low polling marks throughout the race.
The author and entrepreneur's hard-line proposals for mass government layoffs and eliminations of major agencies, as well as near-unlimited self-funding that fueled months of campaigning in Iowa, allow him to hang around the race a while longer.
How he could fall short: Ramaswamy's onslaught of campaign events and self-funding are for naught, as his targeted groups of caucusgoers don't show up on Jan. 15.
His pitch as the "next generation" of Trump's "America First" movement doesn't resonate, with potential supporters instead turning out for Trump himself.
A key number: 318, the number of events Ramaswamy has held in Iowa from February 2022 through Jan. 2, according to a list provided by the campaign to the Register.
Read more on Vivek Ramaswamy:
- Ramaswamy defends Steve King endorsement, says Trump got 'duped' by 'managerial class'
- Vivek Ramaswamy, campaigning in Iowa, defends his trafficking in conspiracy theories
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson
Where he stands: 1% first-choice support in December's Iowa Poll, sixth place.
The path to victory: Hutchinson, who at several points during this caucus cycle has been openly booed by Republican crowds, is able to pull off an unlikely last-minute surge, spurred by consolidating anti-Trump Republicans seeking a more moderate option.
How he could fall short: Hutchinson has pitched himself as a candidate open to bipartisanship, recently conducting a "Return to Normal" campaign swing, but it's not what Iowans are looking for. He fails to chart in the caucuses.
A key number: Four, the number of Republican debates Hutchinson has failed to qualify for since making the stage at the first debate in August.
Read more on Asa Hutchinson:
- Asa Hutchinson says he wants to outperform Vivek Ramaswamy in the Iowa Caucuses
- Asa Hutchinson is polling at 1% in Iowa. He says he's still in the race to the caucus.
Texas pastor Ryan Binkley
Where he stands: 0% first-choice support in December's Iowa Poll.
The path to victory: Binkley's faith focus and willingness to spend money despite his nonexistent support in polls allows him to attract undecided voters in the final days of the race.
How he could fall short: His status as a political outsider does not resonate with Iowans, as he fails to gain any traction and leaves Iowa with no notable support.
A key number: 0%, which Binkley has polled at for three straight Iowa Polls.
Read more on Ryan Binkley:
Galen Bacharier covers politics for the Register. Reach him at gbacharier@registermedia.com or (573) 219-7440, and follow him on Twitter @galenbacharier.